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This week Manpower reports the outcomes of its Employment Outlook Survey for Q1 of 2010 – in it Irish employers indicate that the hiring environment will be far from buoyant in the first quarter. In fact some 17 percent of Irish employers anticipate reducing staff numbers between January and March of 2010 in 10 of 11 industry sectors. Overall, hiring intentions are three percentage points weaker when compared to Quarter 4 2009; Employers report their sixth consecutive quarter of negative hiring activity.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, measures the intentions of  620 Irish employers to increase or decrease their workforce over the next three months, also reveals that Ireland’s Net Employment Outlook for the next three months is -11%, the weakest hiring forecasts globally with Spain (-11%) and Romania (-11%).

With the exception of the Public & Social industry sector, where the Net Employment Outlook is a flat 0%, negative hiring activity is reported by employers in every other Irish industry sector. Employers in the Electricity, Gas & Water (-11%), Pharmaceutical (-14%)and Wholesale & Retail Trade (-15%) industry sectors report the least optimistic hiring intentions since the survey began. The regional Irish labour market is expected to be strongest in Ulster (-6%) where the outlook is unchanged quarter-over-quarter and employers in Leinster (-20%) forecast the country’s weakest regional hiring pace.

The Restaurant & Hotels industry sector employers report a gloomy Net Employment Outlook of -13%, up by a marginal one percentage point in comparison to Quarter 4 2009 and down five percentage points year-over-year.

The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services sector(-3%) Net Employment Outlook remains relatively stable year-over-year, while sector employers report a conservative increase of two percentage points when compared to Quarter 4 2009.

International Comparisons:

• Employment forecasts are more favourable in India (+39%), Brazil (+31%), Singapore (+26%), Taiwan (+25%), Costa Rica (+20%), Australia (+19%) and Peru (+19%). Conversely, employer hiring expectations are weakest in Ireland (-11%), Romania (-11%) and Spain (-11%).

• In the Europe, Middle East and Africa region (EMEA), hiring expectations are mixed with employers in 9 out of 18 countries reporting positive hiring activity for Quarter 1 2010.

• Negative hiring intentions are reported by employers in 8 countries for the first three months of the year. Employers in Belgium (-5%), the Czech Republic (-6%), Hungary (-7%), Poland (+4%) and Romania (-11%) are also reporting their weakest hiring plans to date.

Globally, hiring activity is expected to be mostly positive throughout the Asia Pacific and the Americas with employers across the Asia Pacific region expect hiring to return to a pre-recession pace.

About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey which is conducted quarterly, measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease their workforces over the forthcoming quarter and is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, gathering data from over 71,000 public and private employers across 35 countries and territories each quarter.

In Ireland, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 620 Irish employers. All survey participants were asked, ‘How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2010 as compared to the current quarter?’

Not a great outlook, but I don’t think this research will be unexpected to many business leaders in Ireland – what do you think?